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Thu. Jul 18th, 2024

How will Donald Trump’s guilty verdict affect his re-election bid? Is its political impact here?

By Vaseline May30,2024

NEW YORK – Former President Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign is entering an unprecedented phase in American political history as he becomes the first major party candidate to be convicted of a crime.

Trump must now convince Americans he deserves a second term in the White House after a jury in New York found him guilty of falsifying company records as part of a scheme to influence the 2016 presidential election. However, Republicans are expected to take a familiar approach: attack the justice system.

“These charges are falsified,” Trump told reporters at the courthouse on Wednesday as jury deliberations began, in comments that appeared to suggest he was bracing voters for the possibility of a guilty verdict.

Expect these efforts to continue now that a jury has found the former president guilty, while supporters of President Joe Biden are likely to argue that the unprecedented verdict proves Trump unfit for another four-year term.

More meetings, more fundraising

So what comes after Trump’s historic conviction? As he awaits sentencing, the Trump campaign is expected to step up its rallies and fundraising, giving the former president more opportunities to argue that the judge and prosecutors played politics by pursuing the hush-money case against him.

The presumptive Republican nominee will also be preparing for some important events. There will be a debate with Biden on June 27, hosted by CNN in Atlanta, as well as the decision on selecting a running mate. The former president has said he will likely announce his choice at the Republican convention, scheduled for July 15-18 in Milwaukee.

In the meantime, pollsters with ties to Trump and Biden will study the data to assess how voters react to the first-ever conviction of a former president and current presidential candidate.

One thing Trump probably won’t have to worry about anytime soon: prison. He plans to appeal the verdict, and the process could drag on for years.

GRAND RAPIDS, MICHIGAN - APRIL 02: Former US President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event on April 2, 2024 in Grand Rapids, Michigan.  Trump gave a speech that has mentioned his campaign "Biden's Border Massacre", as recent polls have shown that immigration and the situation at the US southern border remain top issues on voters' minds in the November elections.  (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)GRAND RAPIDS, MICHIGAN - APRIL 02: Former US President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event on April 2, 2024 in Grand Rapids, Michigan.  Trump gave a speech that has mentioned his campaign "Biden's Border Massacre", as recent polls have shown that immigration and the situation at the US southern border remain top issues on voters' minds in the November elections.  (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Target group: independents

The coming campaign will focus on a relatively small number of voters: independents who are on the fence between Trump and Biden.

Campaign officials and independent pollsters have said for months that the verdict will have no impact on Trump supporters; It also won’t impact solid Biden voters.

Everyone else? No one really knows how they will react to a convicted felon running for president. After all, it never happened.

But even a small percentage turning away from Trump could make a difference in closely contested battleground states like Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

At the same time, Trump has suggested that even a guilty verdict could help him because “the people of the country view this as a rigged deal.”

It’s a pitch that has yet to be played out, but the process itself doesn’t seem to have hurt Trump much. The former president is slightly leading Biden in many national polls and in battleground states, though most of those leads are within the margin of error.

During the six-week trial, Trump was able to campaign and hold fundraisers on Wednesdays, the court’s day off, and on weekends. Look for him on the campaign trail just about any day of the week now.

Robert De Niro speaks in support of US President Joe Biden outside the Manhattan Criminal Court as former president and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump attends his criminal trial on May 28, 2024.Robert De Niro speaks in support of US President Joe Biden outside the Manhattan Criminal Court as former president and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump attends his criminal trial on May 28, 2024.

Robert De Niro speaks in support of US President Joe Biden outside the Manhattan Criminal Court as former president and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump attends his criminal trial on May 28, 2024.

The Biden campaign is also entering a new phase

Trump will also face a more aggressive Biden campaign, which is entertaining the idea of ​​moving against the former president after a conviction.

During the trial, Biden officials said they do not plan to focus solely on the guilty verdict, but on the full panoply of charges against Trump.

The former president has been charged in three other criminal cases, including two that accused him of trying to steal the 2020 race for the White House. In civil lawsuits, Trump has been found liable for bank fraud and sexual abuse.

Michael Taylor, the Biden team’s communications director, told reporters they want to talk about “the unique threat that Donald Trump poses to our democracy.”

One thing is clear: Trump and Biden’s playbooks will be tested this summer as the candidates both seek a second term.

More trials? Who knows?

But another unknown is whether Trump will be tried again before Election Day on November 5.

The former president is facing federal criminal charges in Washington for trying to steal the 2020 election from Biden. But that trial was postponed when the Supreme Court agreed with Trump’s claim that he should be immune from prosecution for presidential actions.

The court is expected to rule in early July, and a decision against Trump could mean a trial before Election Day — perhaps in the middle of the fall campaign season.

A favorable ruling from Trump would almost certainly push the trial past Election Day.

There are also no trial dates scheduled for Trump in the federal case in South Florida over allegations that the former president mishandled classified information and obstructed justice, and the one in Georgia over his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results. Peach State to target.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Donald Trump’s hush money conviction and reelection bid: What it means

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