Sun. Jul 14th, 2024

How this could affect his bid for the White House versus Biden

By Vaseline May30,2024

But any change may not be enough to change the trajectory of the presidential race, with the latest poll showing that only a small share of non-Democratic voters would be less likely to vote for Trump if he is found guilty in the hush money trial. .

Nearly three-quarters of registered independents said a guilty verdict against Trump would make no difference to their vote, according to the NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist survey released Thursday morning.

Only 11% of respondents said this outcome would make them less likely to support Trump in November, while 15% of the group said a guilty verdict would make them more likely to support him.

Among Republicans, 25% said they would be more likely to vote for Trump if he is found guilty in New York, compared with 10% who said this would be less likely.

These answers mirror the results of a recent Quinnipiac University poll, in which only 6% of Trump voters said they would be less likely to vote for him if convicted, while nearly a quarter said they would be more likely to vote for him .

However, 23% of independent registered voters in that poll said a conviction of Trump would make them less likely to support him.

“It’s a strange situation where a criminal conviction probably makes little difference politically,” Erik Gordon, a professor at the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business, said in an interview.

Most people on both sides of the political spectrum have already made up their minds about Trump, the professor explained.

“The only thing that could hurt Trump right now would be if someone has a TikTok of him kicking a cat,” he joked.

Compared to a Politico Magazine/Ipsos poll in March — which found that 36% of independents would be less likely to vote for a convicted Trump — the more recent survey results suggest a decline in the hush-money verdict’s potential impact.

On the one hand, the poll’s findings indicate that the outcome of Trump’s trial will ultimately not affect the vast majority of voters.

But in a perpetually close race with two big-name candidates targeting a small but important segment of swing voters, any change in opinion resulting from the guilty verdict could have an outsized effect.

Yet so far, few events in the unusual presidential rematch have had a clear, measurable impact on the state of the battle.

Despite being burdened by numerous lawsuits, dozens of criminal charges and a steady stream of scandals and blunders, national polls show Trump in an extremely close national race with Biden and with a slight lead in key battleground states.

The White House and Biden’s reelection campaign, meanwhile, have been dogged by consumer concerns about inflation — consistently one of voters’ top concerns — despite their efforts to spread a more positive message about the growing U.S. economy.

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist surveyed 1,261 American adults from May 21 to 23 with a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points. For the 907 registered voters who definitely plan to vote in the November 5 elections, the margin of error rises to 4.1 percentage points.

Quinnipiac surveyed 1,374 registered U.S. voters from May 16 to 20, with a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points.

This Politico Magazine/Ipsos survey of 1,024 U.S. adults was conducted March 8-10. The margin of error is 3.3 percentage points.

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