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Sat. Jul 20th, 2024

India Q4 GDP Live Updates:Will the economy have a blockbuster end to FY24 or slip on the growth slope?

By Vaseline May31,2024

10:07:08 AM IST, 31 May 2024

Sustained momentum in domestic demand is likely to have underpinned the stellar performance of the economy

– Ankita Amajuri, economist at Capital Economics

10:01:45 AM IST, 31 May 2024

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: October-December quarter recap

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: In the October-December quarter, growth was boosted by a sharp fall in subsidies, while gross value added (GVA), seen by economists as a more stable measure of growth, rose 6.5%.

09:53:26 AM IST, 31 May 2024

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: India’s economy seen growing at a slower pace in the March quarter, as per Reuters polls

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: India’s economy is expected to have grown at a slower pace in the January-March quarter than the previous three months, dampened by a moderation in manufacturing and urban spending, but economists see economic momentum remaining strong in Asia’s third-largest economy.

The median forecast from a survey of 54 economists put GDP growth at 6.7% year-on-year for the three months, the fourth quarter of India’s 2023/24 fiscal year, lower than the higher- than-expected 8.4% expansion in the previous quarter, according to Reuters.

09:42:09 AM IST, 31 May 2024

India Q4 GDP Live: RBI’s FY25 forecast: 7% growth, 4.5% inflation

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: The central bank has forecast 7% GDP growth for the current fiscal, with inflation settling at 4.5%. In its FY24 annual report, RBI said the Indian economy is successfully navigating adverse global macroeconomic and financial environments.

09:30:31 AM IST, 31 May 2024

India Q4 GDP Live: The trouble with India’s growth

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: “Following a decade of near jobless growth, the rising number of discouraged workers had pushed India’s LFPR (labour force participation rate) down well below levels exhibited by the four Asian tigers at comparable stages in their demography,” said Kunal Kundu, India economist at Societe Generale.

09:28:31 AM IST, 31 May 2024

India Q4 GDP Live: Growth may be on track, but where are the jobs?

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the most significant economic challenge facing the government after the ongoing election is unemployment. Despite expectations for India, the world’s most populous country, to achieve a robust growth rate of 6.5% this fiscal year, concerns persist over the country’s ability to generate sufficient employment opportunities.

Despite boasting the fastest growth rate among its major counterparts, the Indian economy has struggled to create an adequate number of jobs for its sizable and expanding young population. This issue has emerged as a focal point for citizens as they participate in the electoral process to select the next government.

09:22:22 AM IST, 31 May 2024

India needs to do a lot more work to get to 8% growth on a sustainable basis.

– Raghuram Rajan

09:19:03 AM IST, 31 May 2024

Markets Open: Sensex climbs 300 pts, Nifty above 22,550; Apollo Hospitals jumps 3%, Zomato falls 5%

09:16:08 AM IST, 31 May 2024

India Q4 GDP Live: Raghuram Rajan thinks India making a big mistake believing ‘hype’ about its growth

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: Former central bank Governor Raghuram Rajan has cautioned India against placing excessive faith in the “hype” surrounding its robust economic growth, stressing the existence of significant structural challenges that must be addressed for the country to fulfill its potential.

Rajan emphasized that one of the most pressing challenges facing a new government post-elections is the enhancement of education and skill development among the workforce. He underscored the critical importance of addressing this issue, highlighting that without substantial improvements in education and skills, India will struggle to harness the demographic dividend offered by its youthful population, with over half of its 1.4 billion citizens below the age of 30.

Asserting that India still has a considerable amount of groundwork to cover, Rajan cautioned against complacency and cautioned against falling prey to inflated perceptions of progress. He cautioned against subscribing to the notion propagated by politicians that India has already reached its peak, emphasizing the need for sustained efforts to substantiate any claims of success.

In critiquing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s aspiration to transform India into a developed economy by 2047, Rajan dismissed it as “nonsense,” given the prevailing challenges such as inadequate access to high school education and persistently high drop-out rates.

Rajan emphasized that while India possesses a growing workforce, its potential can only be realized if individuals are gainfully employed in quality jobs. He highlighted the looming risk of failing to capitalize on this demographic dividend if suitable employment opportunities are not created for the workforce.

09:09:34 AM IST, 31 May 2024

India Q4 GDP Live: Is the widening gap between GDP and GVA concerning?

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: The widening gap between GDP and GVA has sparked concerns and raised questions about the momentum of India’s economic activity.

While the disparity between GDP (growing at 8.4%) and GVA (growing at 6.5%) is notable, it is not unprecedented. Over the past decade, there have been four other instances when the difference between the two growth indicators exceeded one percentage point. In the current quarter, improved net taxes alongside a significant contraction in agriculture have contributed to this variance.

The primary concern stemming from this gap is the divergence between demand-side growth (measured by the expenditure-approach method) and supply-side growth (indicated by the production approach). This suggests a scenario where demand for goods may outstrip supply, potentially leading to inflationary pressures. Additionally, the poor performance of the agricultural sector is expected to constrain food supplies, further exacerbating inflationary concerns in the upcoming quarters.

09:05:21 AM IST, 31 May 2024

India Q4 GDP Live: A note from Deloitte’s Rumki Majumdar

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: India experienced a significant leap in its GDP growth on Leap Day in 2024, with a remarkable rate of 8.4% recorded in the third quarter of the fiscal year 2024. This exceeded market analysts’ expectations, who had forecasted a slower growth ranging between 6.6% and 7.2% for this quarter. Deloitte, for instance, projected a growth rate between 7.1% and 7.4% in January 2024. Furthermore, substantial revisions to data from the past three quarters of the fiscal year contributed to India’s GDP growth already reaching 8.2% year over year (YoY) during these quarters.

In light of these revisions and stronger-than-anticipated growth in fiscal 2024, our growth prediction for the year has been revised to a range of 7.6% to 7.8%. However, we anticipate modest growth in the fourth quarter due to uncertainties surrounding India’s 2024 general elections and subdued consumption growth. Looking ahead, our near-term forecasts remain consistent with previous projections, albeit with a slight adjustment in the forecast range due to a higher base effect in fiscal 2024. We anticipate GDP growth to be around 6.6% in the next fiscal year (fiscal 2025) and 6.75% in the subsequent year (fiscal 2026), as markets adapt to factor in geopolitical uncertainties in their investment and consumption decisions.

09:00:06 AM IST, 31 May 2024

India Q4 GDP Live: The latest available economic data for India compared to countries in South Asia

08:57:52 AM IST, 31 May 2024

No matter which party forms the government in June, India’s growth will stay robust. There may not be any significant change in the broad direction of policy irrespective of political party.

– Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities

08:54:11 AM IST, 31 May 2024

India Q4 GDP Live: India’s election period ends with results awaited, BJP expected to keep New Delhi

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: India’s six-week-long election period concludes on June 1, with results anticipated on June 4. While there is widespread anticipation of the BJP’s return to office, uncertainty remains regarding its ability to secure an expanded majority as forecasted by Modi.

Financial markets are on edge, preparing for potential selling pressure in the event of reduced BJP support, amid concerns over a potential departure from economic reform policies.

08:52:01 AM IST, 31 May 2024

India Q4 GDP Live: Indian economy demonstrates resilience amidst challenges, Deutsche Bank economist notes

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: Kaushik Das, chief economist for India at Deutsche Bank AG, noted in a statement that “The Indian economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience despite enduring higher rates for an extended period, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the preceding challenges posed by the Covid pandemic.” However, Das also mentioned that the robust growth rate could be significantly influenced by the methodology used for its calculation.

08:46:29 AM IST, 31 May 2024

India Q4 GDP Live: Goldman Sachs raises India’s GDP growth forecast amid RBI dividend, delays rate cut expectations

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: Goldman Sachs has increased its GDP growth projection due to the substantial dividend from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and has postponed its anticipation of an interest rate reduction by the central bank.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs have revised India’s GDP forecast for 2024 upwards by 10 basis points (bps) to 6.7%. They anticipate continued growth momentum, supported by additional fiscal space resulting from the significant dividend transfer by the RBI.

Regarding domestic growth, key indicators remain robust. Goldman Sachs’ proprietary consumption index indicates a recovery in the first quarter (+7.8% YoY), driven by improving rural consumption and ongoing strength in urban consumption indicators.

08:34:23 AM IST, 31 May 2024

A cool-off in core CPI inflation coupled with the base effect from last year would aid in bringing down headline inflation to 4.55% in FY25. Food inflation would remain a sore point in FY25 as well.

– RBL Bank economist Achala Jethmalani

08:27:30 AM IST, 31 May 2024

India Q4 GDP Live: RBI’s next move

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: The RBI is expected to maintain the policy rate at 6.5% for the eighth consecutive time during its upcoming meeting from June 5-7. With India’s general election concluding on June 1 and counting scheduled for June 4, experts anticipate the RBI to initiate rate cuts in the latter half of the fiscal year.

“A decline in core CPI inflation, combined with the base effect from the previous year, is likely to contribute to a decrease in headline inflation to 4.55% in FY25,” stated RBL Bank economist Achala Jethmalani. However, Jethmalani cautioned that food inflation is expected to remain a concern in FY25.

08:23:33 AM IST, 31 May 2024

India Q4 GDP Live: Economist predictions

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: Icra’s Chief Economist, Aditi Nayar, predicts that lower volume growth, combined with reduced benefits from commodity prices, will likely dampen the profitability of certain industrial sectors and consequently hinder India’s Gross Value Added (GVA) growth in the fourth quarter of FY2024.

08:12:13 AM IST, 31 May 2024

High-frequency indicators suggest that economic momentum remains strong in Q4, with the ongoing recovery in rural demand and sustained strength in urban demand.

– CareEdge chief economist Rajani Sinha

08:08:48 AM IST, 31 May 2024

India Q4 GDP Live: Future predictions

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: Based on the 7.6% first advance estimate for the fiscal year 2023-24 (FY24), statistical analysis suggests a GDP expansion of 5.7% in the March quarter. This estimation is derived from the available data for the first nine months of FY24, indicating a potential growth trajectory for the final quarter of the fiscal year.

08:04:36 AM IST, 31 May 2024

India Q4 GDP Live: Chief Economic Advisor anticipates India’s FY24 growth to reach 8%

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: In a statement earlier this month, Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran expressed optimism regarding India’s economic growth, suggesting that the fiscal year 2023-24 (FY24) could see a significant uptick to potentially reach 8%. This projection represents an acceleration from the 7% rise observed in FY23, signaling a positive outlook for India’s economic trajectory underpinned by various growth drivers and policy initiatives.

08:04:57 AM IST, 31 May 2024

Capex cycle remains supported by government expenditure (Centre plus states)

– Gaurav Sengupta, economist at IDFC First Bank

07:55:22 AM IST, 31 May 2024

India Q4 GDP Live: IMF forecasts 7.8% growth for India in FY24

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is also in alignment with the prevailing consensus, forecasting a growth rate of 7.8% for India in the fiscal year 2023-24 (FY24). This forecast underscores the widespread optimism regarding India’s economic performance and highlights the country’s potential for robust expansion.

07:51:03 AM IST, 31 May 2024

India Q4 GDP Live: How India has fared this year so far

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: Over the past three quarters, India’s economy exhibited robust growth, with expansion rates of 7.8 percent in Q1, 7.6 percent in Q2, and 8.4 percent in Q3.

07:34:07 AM IST, 31 May 2024

India Q4 GDP Live: ET Poll forecasts Q4 growth at 6.8%, full-year growth at 7.8%

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: An Economic Times poll of 15 economists projects a GDP growth rate of 6.8% for the fourth quarter, while the full-year growth is expected to reach 7.8%. The median forecast for FY25 stands at 6.8%.

The ET poll also includes 17 full-year forecasts ranging from 7.3% to 8.1% and Q4 estimates between 5.7% and 7.7%. Notably, the economy grew by 6.1% in Q4 FY23.

07:24:48 AM IST, 31 May 2024

India Q4 GDP Live: SBI Research forecasts India’s Q4 FY24 GDP growth at 7.4%

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: ndia is expected to achieve a GDP growth rate of 7.4% in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2023-24, according to a report by SBI Research. The report also anticipates an overall GDP growth rate of 8% for the entire fiscal year.

The center is scheduled to release the GDP figures for the fourth quarter of the current fiscal year, along with provisional estimates for 2023-24, on Friday, May 31.

The SBI report highlights that leading indicators indicate a consistent growth trend across both urban and rural areas. “Passenger vehicle sales, airport passenger traffic, GST collection, credit card transactions, petroleum consumption, and toll collection are all indicating improving urban economic momentum,” the report stated.

Furthermore, the report noted a gradual improvement in the rural economy, with 75% of indicators showing growth in March 2024, compared to 56% in February and 60% in January. Economic momentum in rural areas can be inferred from increased diesel consumption and a rise in two-wheeler sales.

07:16:03 AM IST, 31 May 2024

India Q4 GDP Live: Keep an eye out for the services and consumption numbers today

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: Last quarter’s growth was likely driven by investments, construction, and manufacturing, according to Suvodeep Rakshit, chief economist of Kotak Institutional Equities. However, Rakshit cautioned that there are “some pockets of weakness in corporate earnings which can dampen the overall growth numbers.”

Teresa John from Nirmal Bang suggested that growth in the services sector, which constitutes about half of GDP, likely remained robust last quarter. Additionally, government spending continued to expand.

Economists pointed out that strong urban demand and wage growth likely supported consumer spending, which accounts for more than 60% of the economy. Although rural demand remained weak, there were some early signs of recovery.

07:11:46 AM IST, 31 May 2024

India Q4 GDP Live: Watch for growth divergence in the GDP release today

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: The growth witnessed in the October-December quarter was primarily fueled by an unexpected decrease in government subsidies, which artificially boosted the net indirect tax category used for calculating gross domestic product (GDP). However, an alternative measure of growth using gross value added (GVA) stood at 6.5% for the same quarter.

Economists anticipate a continuation of the growth disparity between GDP and GVA in the January-March quarter. Madhavi Arora, an economist at Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd., told Bloomberg that recent data from the central government and various states indicate that subsidies are currently around 30% lower than the previous year. Arora estimated that this reduction could artificially elevate the fourth-quarter GDP figure to approximately 6.9%-7%, surpassing expectations. However, GVA growth may still fall short of 6%, she added.

07:02:12 AM IST, 31 May 2024

India Q4 GDP Live: India likely to report close to 8% economic growth for fiscal year ending in March, says Bloomberg survey

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: India is expected to report economic growth close to 8% for the fiscal year ending in March, providing a significant boost to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government as elections draw to a close. According to a Bloomberg survey of economists, official data scheduled for publication on Friday will likely indicate that Asia’s third-largest economy grew by 7% in the first three months of the year, resulting in a growth rate of 7.9% for the financial year through March.

While the quarterly growth figure is anticipated to be lower than the preceding quarter’s remarkable 8.4% expansion, which was driven by one-off factors, it is still expected to surpass the government’s prediction of 5.9%.

06:56:18 AM IST, 31 May 2024

India Q4 GDP Live: India’s retail inflation drops to 11-month low at 4.83% in April 2024

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: Retail inflation in India recorded a figure of 4.83% in April 2024, marking the lowest rate in the past 11 months. While this figure falls within the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) comfort range of 2-6%, it remains above the ideal scenario of 4%. Despite being a concern for many countries, including advanced economies, India has effectively managed its inflation trajectory.

06:53:39 AM IST, 31 May 2024

India Q4 GDP Live: Morgan Stanley forecasts broad-based growth in India’s economy

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: Morgan Stanley suggests that India’s robust growth, which is already strong and accelerating, may extend further across both consumer and business spending sectors. In its latest report, titled ‘2024 Global Economic Midyear Outlook,’ the global investment bank attributes India’s sturdy growth to three key megatrends: global offshoring, digitalization, and energy transition.

The report forecasts a 6.8% growth rate for India in 2024, slightly lower than the RBI’s projection of 7%. Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley anticipates a growth rate of 6.5% for the following year. Moreover, the report predicts that inflation will remain within policymakers’ comfort zone.

06:48:16 AM IST, 31 May 2024

India Q4 GDP Live: Citi anticipates S&P Global ratings to upgrade India’s sovereign rating by late 2026

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: Citi expects S&P Global Ratings to upgrade India’s sovereign rating by late 2026, driven by the ratings agency’s confidence in the nation’s macroeconomic drivers and the flow of economic and political cycles, as stated on Thursday.

S&P recently revised India’s sovereign rating outlook to ‘positive’ from ‘stable,’ citing the country’s robust economic fundamentals. However, it maintained the rating itself at ‘BBB-‘.

“In the past, S&P had a positive outlook on India in mid-2004 and mid-2006. In both instances, an actual rating upgrade happened within six months,” noted Citi economists in a statement.

They anticipate a potential upgrade around late 2026 but suggested it could occur earlier if S&P gains confidence in India’s fiscal trajectory.

06:46:03 AM IST, 31 May 2024

India Q4 GDP Live: India’s Q4 GDP growth expected to slow amid manufacturing and urban spending dip, Reuters poll shows

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: India’s economy is expected to have grown at a slower pace in the January-March quarter compared to the previous three months, due to a moderation in manufacturing and urban spending. Despite this, economists believe that the economic momentum remains strong in Asia’s third-largest economy.

A Reuters survey of 54 economists forecasts GDP growth at 6.7% year-on-year for the fourth quarter of India’s 2023/24 fiscal year, down from the higher-than-expected 8.4% expansion in the previous quarter.

06:44:19 AM IST, 31 May 2024

India Q4 GDP Live: Can India keep maintain its growth rate? RBI weighs in

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: The RBI report noted that the Indian economy expanded robustly in 2023-24, with real GDP growth accelerating to 7.6% from 7.0% in the previous year. This marks the third consecutive year of growth at or above 7%, showcasing the economy’s resilience despite persistent headwinds.

06:42:06 AM IST, 31 May 2024

India Q4 GDP Live: RBI projects India’s economy to grow at 7%, fastest among major economies

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: India’s economy is projected to grow at 7% in the current fiscal year, marking the fastest growth among major global economies. This forecast is supported by the continued strengthening of macroeconomic fundamentals, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) stated in its latest annual report on Thursday.

While the RBI expects headline inflation to moderate further, it cautioned that food inflation remains susceptible to supply-side shocks.

06:38:04 AM IST, 31 May 2024

India Q4 GDP Live: S&P upgrades India’s rating outlook to positive, citing robust economic growth and fiscal reforms

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: S&P Global Ratings revised India’s rating outlook from stable to positive on Wednesday, citing expectations of continued economic reforms and consistent fiscal policies, irrespective of the upcoming Lok Sabha election results.

“Our positive outlook on India is predicated on its robust economic growth, pronounced improvement in the quality of government spending, and political commitment to fiscal consolidation. We believe these factors are coalescing to benefit credit metrics,” the rating agency said in a statement.

S&P highlighted that India’s strong economic expansion positively impacts its credit metrics. It anticipates that solid economic fundamentals will sustain growth momentum over the next two to three years. “The composition of government spending has been transformed, with an increasing share going to infrastructure,” it asserted, noting that this shift will alleviate bottlenecks and set the country on a higher growth trajectory.

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